Abstract
Currently models provide guidance when predicting flash flooding, though forecasters continue to use real-time rainfall rate estimates. However radar is not always accurate when a developing storm transitions from a state of cold to warm cloud convection. This exploratory research looks into storm prediction using lightning data to develop longer lead times. These lead times could mean better prediction of flash flooding and offer more time to warn the public of probable severe weather. Each case studied was chosen with the criteria that hail reports were a precursor to flash flooding for a given 24 hours. In total 15 cases were studied, limited to New York and Pennsylvania between May to August, 2008-2013. A case on August 15th, 2008 will be investigated in more detail for its ties to cold cloud vs. warm cloud rain. Of the 15 cases, 10 indicate a peak in positive CG lightning before a flash flood. Six of those cases provide a lead time of a half hour to an hour.
